After several years of modest productivity growth in the United States, labor productivity—measured as output per hour—has risen since 2022. This increase has sparked renewed interest in whether the economy may be entering a period of higher and more sustained productivity growth. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago show that labor productivity has stayed above its pre-pandemic trend and has climbed further since late 2022, a period that coincides with the widespread commercial use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools.
Researchers analyzed whether this improvement is widespread across industries and how it aligns with AI adoption rates. Using industry-level labor productivity data alongside U.S. Census Bureau figures on AI usage among firms, they found that while aggregate labor productivity can rise due to broad-based improvements, gains are currently concentrated within a smaller set of industries.
According to their findings, “A few industries account for most gains in both eras, while several contribute little or even switch from positive to negative contributions across eras (such as wholesale trade). However, two patterns stand out. First, the top four contributors in the gen-AI era—retail trade, information, professional/scientific/technical services (PSTS), and real estate/rental/leasing—also led contributions in the pre-pandemic era, but their contributions nearly doubled on average. Second, several industries, such as mining and nondurable goods, shifted from small or negative contributions in the pre-pandemic era to meaningful positive contributions in the gen-AI era.”
The analysis also revealed that within sectors making major contributions during this period—notably information and PSTS—the increases were driven by specific subsectors rather than being spread evenly throughout each sector.
Further examination showed that although overall productivity growth since 2022 is larger than before, it is less broadly distributed among industries. The majority of net gains have come from a relatively small group of high-contributing industries. As stated: “If productivity gains were broadly shared across industries, the curve would rise more smoothly… The curve does not turn positive until roughly 64 percent of the economy’s value added is included, implying that a relatively small set of high-contributing industries has driven most of the net pickup.”
The link between AI adoption and industry-level productivity growth was found to be significant but moderate. Higher-adoption industries generally experienced faster productivity growth; however, this relationship explained only a small portion of aggregate improvements. “High-adoption industries are not always the ones with the largest increases in contributions to aggregate productivity growth. For example, manufacturing’s contribution has risen more than information’s despite lower reported AI use,” according to researchers.
Overall results indicate that while labor productivity has moved notably above its pre-pandemic trend—and cumulative industry contributions have more than doubled—the increase is still primarily driven by a limited number of sectors. The durability and breadth of these gains will depend on whether AI-driven improvements become more widely distributed across additional parts of the economy over time.
“The larger pickup and the positive AI adoption-growth link point to upside potential as adoption spreads,” concluded Nida Çakır Melek and Sydney Miller from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Bulletin dated February 11, 2026. “But the cross-industry pattern suggests diffusion is still incomplete.”
